Etsy Sales Forecast Calculator
Estimate your Etsy revenue, fees, profit and break-even sales based on order volume, pricing and costs.
Overview
This Etsy Sales Forecast Calculator helps you estimate monthly revenue, fees, profit and break-even sales using your expected order volume, average order value, Etsy fee rate, variable cost per order and fixed monthly costs. It is useful for planning pricing, budgeting and sales targets for your shop.
How it works
The calculator starts by estimating how many orders are likely to remain after refunds or cancellations. It then multiplies completed orders by your average order value to estimate net revenue. Next, it subtracts Etsy fees based on your fee percentage, subtracts variable costs for each completed order, and then subtracts fixed monthly costs to estimate profit. Break-even orders are calculated by dividing fixed costs by the expected contribution from each forecasted order.
How to use this calculator
- 1Enter your expected monthly order count.
- 2Add your average order value.
- 3Enter your estimated total Etsy fee rate.
- 4Include your cost per order for materials, packaging and other variable costs.
- 5Add your monthly fixed costs and refund rate.
- 6Review your estimated revenue, profit, fees and break-even orders.
Example Calculation
Expected monthly orders
50
Average order value
$35
Etsy fee rate
10%
Cost per order
$12
Monthly fixed costs
$150
Refund or cancellation rate
3%
Estimated monthly revenue
$1,698
With 50 expected monthly orders at an average order value of $35, a 9.5% fee rate, $12 cost per order, $150 fixed costs and a 3% refund rate, the shop would forecast about $1698 in net revenue and about $388 in monthly profit.
Frequently asked questions
What does the Etsy Sales Forecast Calculator estimate?
It estimates monthly revenue, Etsy fees, profit and the number of orders needed to break even based on your sales and cost assumptions.
Should I include shipping in average order value?
Include shipping only if it is part of the amount you collect from the customer. If you pay shipping costs, include those costs in your cost per order.
What fee rate should I use for Etsy?
Use a blended estimate that reflects the fees you usually pay, such as transaction and payment processing charges. Your actual effective fee rate may vary.
Does this calculator include refunds and cancellations?
Yes. The refund or cancellation rate reduces the expected number of completed orders and the resulting revenue forecast.
How is break-even sales volume calculated?
Break-even orders are estimated by dividing your monthly fixed costs by the contribution expected from each forecasted order after refunds, fees and variable costs.
Can I use this calculator for seasonal planning?
Yes. You can change the expected order count, average order value or costs to compare slower and busier months.
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Assumptions and warnings
Assumptions
- Results are estimates based on average order value, fee rate and costs entered by the user.
- The fee rate is treated as a single blended percentage and may not match every Etsy charge exactly.
- Refunds or cancellations are applied as a percentage of expected orders.
- Taxes, currency conversion charges, offsite ads and one-off expenses are not included unless built into your inputs.
Warnings
- This calculator provides an estimate only and is not financial or business advice.
- Actual Etsy fees, refunds and costs can vary by listing, location, payment method and selling activity.